【聊了什么】

2024年7月21日美国东部时间下午1:46 ，美国总统拜登在社交媒体上发表声明，宣布退出2024年美国总统竞选。这一事件不仅彻底改变了整个大选的局势，更有可能深远影响美国的命运。

我们紧急录制了新一期播客，讨论了拜登退选的原因及其影响，分析了潜在接班人哈里斯的优势和劣势以及她可能的竞选策略，并展望了并不怎么光明的未来。

本期播客录制于美国东部时间7月21日晚间。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：
欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划：
https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

众筹平台链接：

• Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴】

00:00:41 ">00:00:41 民主党高层如何通过压力让拜登退选

00:05:57 ">00:05:57 民主党新候选人产生的流程

00:11:52 ">00:11:52 各州选票截止日期和民主党大会召开时间带来的挑战

00:15:10 ">00:15:10 换人后如何从流程上增加哈里斯（或其他候选人）的合法性

00:19:34 ">00:19:34 民主党对哈里斯支持的不同态度

00:24:08 ">00:24:08 民主党换人是一种自我实现的预言

00:25:50 ">00:25:50 哈里斯的优势和劣势

00:27:27 ">00:27:27 拜登退选本人和民主党精英的都有责任

00:31:35 ">00:31:35 民主党国会成员要求拜登退选的考量

00:34:37 ">00:34:37 拜登为何无法扭转竞选危机

00:40:13 ">00:40:13 哈里斯给选举带来的变数

00:44:00 ">00:44:00 哈里斯需要尽快定义自己的形象

00:49:29 ">00:49:29 哈里斯的潜在副总统人选

01:02:30 ">01:02:30 哈里斯的动员和选举策略

01:09:45 ">01:09:45 极化环境下总统选举对参议院和众议院选情的影响

01:14:25 ">01:14:25 特朗普获胜、共和党控制两院的后果

01:17:04 ">01:17:04 民主党对特朗普获胜的恐惧

01:19:56 ">01:19:56 拜登接下来还能做什么？

01:25:35 ">01:25:35 拜登退选打开的潘多拉魔盒

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

寄馀生：比较政治爱好者

【 What We Talked About】

On July 21, 2024, at 1:46 PM Eastern Time, President Joe Biden announced on X that he has decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This development has not only dramatically reshaped the entire election landscape but also holds significant implications for the future of the United States.

We recorded an urgent podcast episode to discuss this event. We examined the reasons behind Biden's decision and its potential impacts. We also delved into the strengths and weaknesses of potential successor Kamala Harris, her possible campaign strategies, and the uncertain future that lies ahead.

This episode was recorded on the evening of July 21, Eastern Time.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

00:00:41 ">00:00:41 How Democratic leaders pressured Biden to withdraw

00:05:57 ">00:05:57 The process of selecting a new Democratic nominee

00:11:52 ">00:11:52 Challenges posed by state ballot deadlines and the timing of the Democratic National Convention

00:15:10 ">00:15:10 Enhancing the legitimacy of Harris (or another candidate) through procedural changes

00:19:34 ">00:19:34 Varied attitudes within the Democratic Party towards supporting Harris

00:24:08 ">00:24:08 The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Democratic Party's candidate switch

00:25:50 ">00:25:50 Harris's strengths and weaknesses

00:27:27 ">00:27:27 Responsibility of Biden and Democratic elites in his withdrawal

00:31:35 ">00:31:35 Calculations of Democratic Congress members in urging Biden to step down

00:34:37 ">00:34:37 Why Biden couldn't reverse his campaign crisis

00:40:13 ">00:40:13 The uncertainties Harris brings to the election

00:44:00 ">00:44:00 The need for Harris to quickly define her own image

00:49:29 ">00:49:29 Potential VPl picks for Harris

01:02:30 ">01:02:30 Harris's mobilization and campaign strategies

01:09:45 ">01:09:45 The impact of the polarized environment on Senate and House races during the presidential election

01:14:25 ">01:14:25 Consequences of a Trump victory and Republican control of both chambers

01:17:04 ">01:17:04 Democratic fears of a Trump win

01:19:56 ">01:19:56 What Biden can still do moving forward

01:25:35 ">01:25:35 The Pandora's box opened by Biden's withdrawal

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast

【拓展链接】

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/biden-withdrawal-timeline.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/

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